Prices have been falling for almost two years for new and used watches on the secondary market, but that does not mean there are no longer profits to be made if the right Rolex watches are bought at their recommended retail prices.
Thankfully the days of flippers making massive instant returns are fading, but the watch-loving public is still influenced by the resale value of any purchase, which is why Rolex continues to rein supreme with rigged waiting lists at authorised dealers pushing people towards grey marketeers selling their watches at inflated prices.
As we do when considering the purchase of an expensive car, the likely resale value is rarely ignored.
On average, Rolex watches command a 20.3% secondary market premium, while Patek Philippe watches sell for 39% over retail and Audemars Piguet models can be resold for with a 14% return.
Outside the big three, the vast majority of watches are sold at a discount on the secondary market.
But there are big variations within the Rolex portfolio so we need to drill into a report by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts to find which Rolex watches hold their value best in today’s market.
Rolex Submariner
Starting off with the Rolex Submariner, an iconic dive watch that’s been a favourite among watch enthusiasts for decades. Its timeless design, functionality, and strong investment potential make it a must-have for any serious watch collector.
Across eight Submariner references investigated for the Morgan Stanley report, the model offers a 24.2% return on investment. Its average price at the end of 2023 was $23,038, 5.8% lower than a year ago.
Rolex GMT Master
Next up is the Rolex GMT Master II. Known for its dual time zone feature, this watch is a favourite amongst travellers and businessmen alike.
Averaging out the secondary market price for nine GMT Master references, Morgan Stanley finds it the best performing collection among all Rolexes with prices 48.2% over their recommended retail prices.
The average price for a GMT Master is quoted at $29,421, which is 7.5% lower than the end of 2022.
Rolex Daytona
The Rolex Daytona, a watch that’s synonymous with motor racing, has been the top choice among traders for a decade, thanks in part to the surge in popularity it enjoyed after Paul Newman’s Daytona sold for a world record price of $17.8 Million in 2017.
No model saw its price rise furthest or fall fastest either side of a peak in the second quarter of 2022, but it still trades at a 40.8% premium over retail in today’s market.
Rolex Datejust
Rolex’s sportier watches have been in the crosshairs for investors in recent years, but the classic Rolex Datejust in all its iterations, remains a workhorse for The Crown and a solid bet for collectors who just want their watches to hold their value.
Datejusts do better than just hold their value, according to Morgan Stanley, they are still trading at a 15.4% premium over retail prices across 45 references in the study.
Rolex Oyster Perpetual
Another volume player in the Rolex catalogue is the humble Oyster Perpetual family of automatics, which was updated with a slew of sizes and colours in 2020, some of which (particularly the pale blue pieces) turned into money printing machines for flippers.
Morgan Stanley looks at the average prices of 25 references in its study, and puts the current average price at $7,860, 32.4% over retail. The average price has dropped by 6% over the past 12 months.
In case you think that buying any Rolex is money in the bank, there are collections that are now being traded at a discount to their retail prices.
According to the Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts study, you will lose 1.4% when you walk a Yacht-Master out of a Rolex authorised dealer’s door.
Sea-Dwellers do even worse, trading today at a 2.7% discount on the secondary market.
Overall, Rolex prices are being traded on the secondary market for at an average premium of 20.3% over retail prices.
But consumers should be aware that any professional trader will buy watches for considerably less than these stated market prices. They need to make their own margins when they take on any timepiece, which means the overwhelming majority of Rolex watches cannot be traded in for any profit at all these days.
It is worth reminding ourselves, investing in Rolex watches is not just about buying a timepiece, but about investing in a piece of history. The right model can serve as a valuable asset that appreciates over time while reliably telling the time for decades.
Top Rolex watches to invest in today – clickbait or what?
It would be good to have such an article if anyone was willing or stupid enough to make such a prediction but this article is about value retention immediately after purchase at an AD. Given the improbability of this can I have a s/s Daytona, a s/s GMT pepsi a s/s GMT sprite, a s/s Starbucks and a OP Celebration please? Oh I can’t do that, well how about an article about the best Rolex to buy in the grey market where I can actually make a wise “investment” choice?