It is more than a year since the overheated secondary market for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet hot watches turned cold.
This left dealers in a quandary. Should they have cut their losses and started dumping stock as soon as prices started to fall, or hold on in the hope that they would find a floor and ultimately recover.
Most held on, which left the secondary market frozen.
Advertised prices remained high, but transaction volumes slumped and those deals that have been done were at prices well below what we see on sites like Chrono24.
This year we have seen a sharp rise in the volume of watches being advertised online, and prices are more realistic.
This could be because dealers are now in a position where they are forced to sell.
Some borrowed to buy overpriced watches, and have to liquidate to cover repayments.
Others are just tired of waiting for a recovery and want to move out of watches and into something else. Bitcoin is up 50% since the start of the year.
These thoughts were in my head as I headed over to Bonhams, which is holding its Fine Watches auction at its New Bond Street sale room today.
I took a tour of the auction lots yesterday, picked up a catalogue, and found myself excited at the make-up of the sale, and the estimates.
This is an auction with far more modern watches than usual for a Bond Street sale, and with a slew of desirable Rolex and Patek Philippe watches with enticing estimates.
Sure, there are headliners like a 2012 Patek Philippe 5951P-001 perpetual calendar chronograph in platinum (above), expected to sell for between £220,000 and £280,000, and a Rolex Submariner Ref: 5513 worn by Vanessa Redgrave in the 1966 film Blow Up.
It it weren’t for the fact that its original 3-6-9 dial has been replaced, the watch (below) would be worth around £250,000. But Bonhams is up-front about the alteration (Omega and Phillips take note), and have given it an estimate of £20,000 to £30,000.
If you think that’s a bargain for a watch with a link to Hollywood royalty, tune in at 2pm today (online at Bonhams.com, but please register first) for the rest of the 105 lot auction.
This is a buyers’ market and there are bargains galore.
A few examples:
An 18ct bicolour gold and steel Rolex Daytona, Ref. 116503, from 2019, with full box, papers and tags, has an estimate of £15,000 to £20,000.
Another Rolex Daytona, this time a steel-on-steel Ref. 116520 from 2011 with an APH dial and steel bezel, could be yours for between £12,000 and £18,000.
From Patek Philippe, an 18ct white gold 5230G-014 world timer is expected to sell for £20,000 to £30,000.
The catalogue is stuffed with watches that a year ago would have been selling for double today’s estimates.
And these are not estimates designed simply to generate headlines, Bonhams has a reputation for fairness, and the market today most often sees watches selling for somewhere between their bottom and top estimates.
Time will tell.
There is certain to be interest from dealers at these prices because they can lower the average purchase price of their inventory by mixing bargains in with other stock bought at bloated prices.
But I hope more casual watch lovers get in on the action. Opportunities like today may not be around in a year’s time.
Bonhams Fine Watches auction starts today, June 21, at 14:00 BST.
