I hate to be the party pooper, but last month’s Swiss export figures, which showed the first year-on-year dip for more than two years, are not likely to be a one-off, and will cast a pall over proceedings at Watches and Wonders and the rest of Geneva Watch Week.
Industrialised groups have been painting themselves into a tighter and tighter corner over recent years: selling fewer watches to the same customers at higher prices and keeping a greater percentage of each sale by cutting out intermediaries as they increasingly sell direct to consumers.
With a few notable exceptions, brands have not been sufficiently focused on attracting new customers, they have simply found ways of making more money from each sale to their high net worth, seemingly loyal, collectors.
Now we will see if manufacturers have a plan for customer acquisition instead of just customer relationship management because this year they may find their cash cow collectors feel milked dry and increasingly angry at how they have been taken for granted.
Independent retailers who really know how to succeed in good times or bad are needed more than ever by brands.
But the brands have been shafting these retailers in the good times so should not be surprised if there is no appetite from them for rekindling failed relationships.
This is the background to what will be a safety-first Watches and Wonders.
Our April edition of WatchPro reveals this conservative approach in reports of new watches (under embargo until the magazine is available on day one of the show), along with novelties from many of Swatch Group’s brands that are not participating in the Geneva jamboree.
What we have seen so far is every bit as impressive as previous years, but that is from the perspective of satisfying established customers who like change to be at a glacial pace.
Renaud Tixier is a notable exception with a completely novel micro rotor architecture for its very first watch, but for most we are seeing little more than line extensions for bestselling collections in on-trend colours (pinks and greens), new materials (bang out your bankers in titanium) and fashionably smaller cases (shave a millimetre off everything but make sure you don’t have to reengineer movements).
I am sure there will be surprises in Geneva, in the main from independents at Watches and Wonders and at smaller events in the city, but the industry has narrowed its influence in a way that leaves it troublingly exposed to a downturn, so a year of safety first launches is probably the right move.
