Online retail delivery volumes were up 10% year-on-year in June (an increase of 2% on May) according to the latest IMRG MetaPack UK Delivery Index.
With the EU referendum vote taking place at the end of June, the latest data provides an early indicator of the potential impact of Brexit. June last year was particularly strong (up 23% year-on-year and 15% on May 2015), so this month’s volume was building on a strong base, but there are some possible signs that can be identified.
With the value of sterling dropping sharply following the referendum result, IMRG recorded an increase in the proportion of orders leaving the UK – which, at 27% of total volume, is the highest June figure in the five-year-history of the Index – as products from UK retailers became more attractive to many cross-border shoppers.
So far in 2016, the average order value recorded in the index each month has been increasing compared to the same months last year. In June this trend reversed however, with the order value for EU and non-EU destinations falling 13% compared with May’s order value.
Andrew Starkey, head of e-logistics at IMRG, said: “The data this month provides a reasonably clear indication that there were some early impacts on delivery orders following the EU referendum, but it’s worth keeping in mind that June’s data only included one week of post-Brexit tracking – it’s just too early to say if we are seeing the start of a genuine shift in trends. We knew that sterling would take a sudden sharp hit in the event of a vote to leave, but over time it would be expected to recover again – the more important factor for retailers will be how shopper confidence fares in the long-term.”
